Two weeks from tomorrow the United States will have a new president-elect. At least presumably. As this election season winds down it increasingly looks as though Hillary Clinton will be that president-elect. The majority of national public opinion polls show a clear Clinton victory. Almost every swing state is now in her favor. Clinton’s odds of winning currently stand somewhere between the mid-80s and mid-90s percent. Even as Donald Trump continues to publicly profess “we are winning” his campaign and his inner circle are intimating his loss while many within the GOP are conceding victory and hoping to mitigate damage down the ticket.
As the Trump ticket looks in dire straits Democrats are seeking to take advantage of the GOP electoral weakness. Hillary Clinton is increasingly turning her attention towards down-ballot races with First Lady Michelle Obama playing a prominent role. Clinton is seeking to not only win in November but to secure a unified government. President Obama is also campaigning for Clinton is numerous swing states, urging Democratic turnout and decrying those Republican candidates with ties to Donald Trump. However, it is still unclear whether a unified government is within reach.
Current polling shows that the Democrats are moderate favorites to win the Senate. But after huge Democratic gains following the second presidential debate the odds are evening out. In the House races, however, while Democrats look to gain seats to this point it would not appear enough to gain control of that chamber.
With only a bit more than two weeks before the election and early voting underway in a many states, and looking good for Hillary Clinton, it is premature to call the election in her favor, but not by much. If current trends hold it would appear as though Donald Trump has a very narrow path to victory. But there is still doubt. Donald Trump can win. It’s just statistically improbable.