Updating the polls

pollster-2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

In the month leading up to the first presidential debate Hillary Clinton was experiencing precipitous losses in the polls. But after her consensus victory in the debate as well as Donald Trump’s subsequent week of implosion the balance has apparently tipped back in Clinton’s favor.

Every major national poll conducted since the presidential debate, besides one, shows Clinton ahead by at least 4. Hillary Clinton’s probability of victory as calculated by FiveThirtyEight.com has also increased significantly since the debate, from 54.8% on September 26th to 75.5% on October 5th.

The odds of Democrats winning the Senate have also increased. Similarly, all opinion polls conducted after the debate show Democrats retaking the House of Representatives as well.

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And Democrats are polling favorably in many battleground states.

In other words, that Democratic panic prior to the debate has now been transferred to Republicans.

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